Yes, it’s admittedly way too early to accurately predict what the Social Security cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 will be.
But based on the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, The Senior Citizens League recently released its initial prediction that the 2026 COLA will mirror the 2025 COLA raise by staying at 2.5 percent.
By the numbers: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W), the government’s inflation index to calculate COLAs, came in at 2.6 percent for November.
- The latest release continues a recent trend of falling inflation, as the CPI-W averaged 3.2 percent in Q1 and Q2 2024 before falling to an average of 2.5 percent in Q3, the quarter used to calculate Social Security COLAs.
What they’re saying: “While it’s great to see inflation cooling, that doesn’t mean seniors’ economic challenges are over,” says TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “Years of inadequate COLAs have left older Americans behind, and TSCL will continue fighting until Social Security offers a guaranteed minimum COLA of three percent.
- She adds, “If the Trump administration wants a quick win with seniors, the best place to start is not just protecting Social Security but reforming it. Seniors want to see stronger COLAs that better represent their experience of inflation. They also demand financial reforms to ensure the program lasts not just through the end of their retirements, but their grandchildren’s.”
